WTF on Friday Markets, 01.09

Each solid movement is ETF-related

Disclaimer: Technical analysis is a way of analyzing the financial market based on statistical patterns. Drawing lines on the chart itself does not predict price movements, but only helps the analyst to visualize the results of different types of analysis (macroeconomical, fundamental, technical, etc.). The analysis is not a financial recommendation, although it can be used to make trading decisions. Current analysis may become irrelevant if market conditions change dramatically. Good analysis does not always lead to good trading decisions, and vice versa.

Macro

We started speaking with delight and finished with a sorry sight! On Tuesday, August 29, markets got a bit of FOMO from the news that a court has approved Grayscale’s lawsuit against the SEC over the regulator’s refusal to register the Bitcoin ETF. It was fun, but the pump wasn’t strong enough to break any solid resistance and didn’t last long. On Thursday, August 31, the price completely retraced to previous levels after a bunch of ETFs was delayed. This is the indicator of market weakness and confirmation of the downtrend we mapped out two weeks ago.

Despite the mentioned downtrend, you shouldn’t rely heavily on the chart’s drawings or even the on macro stats, as the entire crypto market is tied to the ETF decision, meaning everything changes in a second after the first ETF is accepted. The question is, “when?”.

BTC

The $BTC chart looks about the same as last week, but there is less potential for upside. As it turned out, we had marked the speculative sell zone quite accurately on the charts in the previous weeks. After such a movement, the previous speculative buy zone is no longer relevant. It seems like the 25k support will be broken eventually.

BNB

On the $BNB chart it is difficult to distinguish any clear downward channel, because the asset is not highly correlated with the Bitcoin price action, but depends more on the amount of FUD towards Binance and CZ. Nevertheless, the price has been above the main resistance for a long time, now and then trying to fall below, and below is only a vertical fall. This is usually a good entry point, but you do not want to trade this one in either direction, given the unprecedented pressure on Binance by regulators.

DOGE

The situation with $DOGE is similar to the situation with $BNB; the asset is also consolidating above the main resistance. But unlike $BNB, there is no threat from regulators, and there is Elon Musk, who is trying to turn “X” into a financial super-app, thus creating a narrative for $DOGE. But the meme coin has been very sluggish in responding to tweets, which indicates weakness.