WTF on Friday Markets, 03.11
Correction time?
Disclaimer: Technical analysis is a way of analyzing the financial market based on statistical patterns. Drawing lines on the chart itself does not predict price movements, but only helps the analyst to visualize the results of different types of analysis (macroeconomical, fundamental, technical, etc.). The analysis is not a financial recommendation, although it can be used to make trading decisions. Current analysis may become irrelevant if market conditions change dramatically. Good analysis does not always lead to good trading decisions, and vice versa.
Macro
More and more “insides” are coming out that ETFs will be approved this year. A top Valkyrie manager was quoted in the news today as saying that the SEC will approve spot Bitcoin ETF applications by the end of November. Of course, none of this is inside, but speculation to create FOMO; and that’s scary.
The Fed expectedly decided to keep rates unchanged at its last meeting on November 1. However, there is no discussion of any rate cuts in the near future, and Powell hinted at the probability of another increase. Stock markets reacted with a meteoric rise. Bitcoin touched 36k as a consequence, but then the price went into its first major correction after breaking through resistance at 30k. Bitcoin seems to have entered into an inverse correlation with stock indexes: BTC rises when stocks fall and falls when they rise. But it’s too early to say for sure.
BTC
Correctional movement is an inevitable component of a healthy uptrend. Apparently, we are about to see the first corrective movement since the fake ETF approval pump. In current realities, the weaker the corrective movement, the more intense the next upward momentum will be and the greater the FOMO. The best-case scenario is that there has already been the lowest point of correction, and there must be a higher high as soon as possible. The closer we get to the main resistance, the more uncertain the situation becomes. The worst case is BTC losing the main support, closing a daily candle below $31k; in that case, it is no longer classified as a correction but rather a trend reversal.
ETH
Generally speaking, Ethereum’s time has not yet come; Bitcoin has absorbed all the attention. This is clearly demonstrated by the ETH/BTC chart, where Ethereum has reached its lowest price in BTC in a year. The good news is that the price in BTC has finally reached the lower edge of the global uptrend.
The chart paired with USD looks noticeably better, and you can even look for speculative entry points here, but it’s important to remember that Bitcoin will outperform Ethereum in the coming months.
SOL
The price of SOL, which we analyzed last week, almost reached $47 but quickly pulled back to $39 after reports that FTX assets were sold. Bitcoin’s weakness also had an impact. Nevertheless, the asset remains the strongest altcoin, and a pullback could provide a good entry opportunity. The sub-$33 resistance is broken, and now SOL has to overcome the whole $33–$45 area to find support somewhere above 45 to enter the bullish zone.
