WTF on Friday Markets, 08.12

Altcoin season?

Disclaimer: Technical analysis is a way of analyzing the financial market based on statistical patterns. Drawing lines on the chart itself does not predict price movements, but only helps the analyst to visualize the results of different types of analysis (macroeconomical, fundamental, technical, etc.). The analysis is not a financial recommendation, although it can be used to make trading decisions. Current analysis may become irrelevant if market conditions change dramatically. Good analysis does not always lead to good trading decisions, and vice versa.

Macro

It’s been a hot and bullish week. At the beginning, Bitcoin, sucking liquidity from the market, rose more than 10% to $44k. Then there was a capital rotation into $ETH, which started to outperform $BTC, with Ethereum-related altcoins growing in tandem. The smell of the altcoin season.

But today’s US labor market data came out stronger than the markets would have liked, which means there is less chance of soft rhetoric at the upcoming Fed meeting. That can ruin the emerging altcoin season.

BTC

Bitcoin’s chart looks great: 8 green weeks in a row. There have been no significant corrections; the growth is practically non-stop. Potentially, a deep correction could start at either 45k or 48k. But the real outcome will depend on the values at which the real ETF approval will happen, and it can happen even at 60k. There are no real correction triggers before the approval.

ETH

As we expected, the capital rotation from $BTC to $ETH has continued. Unfortunately, there was no dip around $1950–$2000, which makes the chart more bullish. The first real resistance is at $2500 and there could be a local distribution zone, and the main support zone is at $2000. As long as the price is somewhere in between, there will be no good entries.

ARB

Arbitrum is the strongest rollup of Ethereum and one of the strongest ecosystems in the space. However, the $ARB price is still lagging behind. Since the largest airdrop in crypto history in March, $ARB still hasn’t had a rally. Now the price is struggling with the only visible resistance on the chart around one dollar. The nearest major unlocks start on March 17, 2024. If the bullish sentiment remains, there will not be a better chance for a rally than the current one for a long time to come.